15.25 Ayr (updated: 10.22)

Merigo

> Won this race in 2010 from a mark of 127, beating the favourite (Gone To Lunch) by 9 lengths, with a further 19 lengths back to the third

> Close second in the race last year from a mark of 142, splitting a pair of progressive, well handicapped horses (Beshabar, Always Right), with 30 lengths back to the fourth

> Course record at Ayr reads: 3-1-1-2-1-2-1. Record when racing at 4 miles+ reads: 1-1-2

> Races prominently, which is often a positive in this race, particularly when the ground is riding on the good side

> Arrives on the back of a win here (25f) last month, shaping as if he would improve further for a stiffer test of stamina. So this year we know he arrives in good heart, compared to 2010/11 when he came here on the back of some poor efforts

> Races off a mark of 134, 8 lb lower than when a close second last year which, as alluded to above, felt like very strong form

Clearly Merigo has a huge amount going for him here. Odds of 7/1 in a 25-runner handicap may usually appear a tight price, but in this instance I think Merigo is worthy of a strong E/W bet with firms paying 5 places. He also makes some back-to-lay appeal for exchange traders given his prominent-racing style and the fact that he looks likely to be in there pitching at the business end of the race.

15.55 Newcastle (updated: 13 April, 23:09)

Lady Gar Gar

> Both career wins have been when fresh (off breaks of circa 3 months and 6 months respectively) – so the fact that she’s making her seasonal reappearance could, if anything, be seen as a positive

> She won on her seasonal reappearance at Beverley (7.5f) last year from a mark of 65, yet is able to race off 61 today after finishing last season with some lesser efforts (which can perhaps be forgiven if she is indeed best when fresh)

> Encouraging that her best effort (third from a mark of 67) in the period that she was generally struggling came over this C&D on soft ground (going currently described as ‘soft’ here), so conditions seemingly no problem to her

Many of Lady Gar Gar‘s rivals here have question marks of one sort or another against them and, with plenty seemingly in her favour, she looks well overpriced at the 11/1 on offer with Bet365 tonight. Indeed, any odds of 7/1+ would strike me as value.

18.05 Doncaster (updated: 13.08)

Potentiale:

> Arrives fit and in form, having finished a close-up third in 2 recent runs over 10f on the all-weather at Lingfield

> Is very consistent, having hit the first 3 in 31 of his 60 career runs, winning 5 times

> Lines up from a feasible mark of 63; he hit the frame on numerous occasions from marks in the 70s last year

> Hold up style means a strong pace to aim at is ideal, and with horses such as Piceno, Yorksters Prince, Trans Sonic and Ay Tay Tate in the line-up, a solid pace seems likely

> His jockey is clearly inexperienced and not the strongest, but she does at least know the horse well and if the leaders come back to the field then she may not need to get too vigorous to get Potentiale into a challenging position

In summary, Potentiale seems to have plenty in his favour and looks well worth backing E/W @ 20/1 (Coral) and to place (top 4) at around 7/2 (Betfair)

(updated: 26 Feb)

 15.00 Ascot (updated: 07.25)

Little Josh:

> Form with Weird Al and Long Run in late 2010 now reads really well given the subsequent achievements of those horses.

> Below par on his next couple of starts last winter, but would hardly be the first from his stable to go well in October/November before losing his form in December/January.

> Made his seasonal reappearance (after a year off) in the Argento Chase over 3m1f110y at Cheltenham last month, and the formbook facts of ’6th of 9, beaten 44 lengths’ don’t tell anything like the whole story. Up against some high class horses, he travelled just about best of all until after 3 out (hit in-running low of 3.10 after starting at Betfair SP of 31.82), after which his stamina appeared to give way. Today’s trip of 2m5f110y would appear to be far more suitable.

The likes of Riverside Theatre (2/1), Kauto Stone (5/2) and Medermit (9/2) are clearly pretty formidable opposition, but I think it’s hard to argue that any of them are particularly overpriced. In contrast, I think Little Josh looks well worth backing at his current price (top price 16/1, 14/1 generally. 16.5+ Betfair). With 8 runners lining up I can easily see him challenging for a top 3 position (for each-way/place purposes) and, for all that Riverside Theatre will be hard to beat, it wouldn’t be the greatest shock to me if he pulled off an upset of sorts to win the race.

15.45 Wincanton (updated: 07.25)

Starluck:

> Not seen since April last year, but that may not be an issue on his first start for David Arbuthnot given he seemingly goes well when fresh. His form off breaks of 3 months+ reads: 1112, with the second being a highly creditable 1.25 lengths second (6 lengths back to Binocular) to Peddlers Cross off level weights in the 2010 Fighting Fifth Hurdle.

> Seemingly something of a ‘forgotten horse’ after a brief spell chasing and the aforementioned absence, but worth remembering that he is still only a 7yo and was running right up to his best when last seen over hurdles in the winter of 2010/11.

> Last run over hurdles was in the Christmas Hurdle last winter (run in January 2011) when he was 6 lengths behind Binocular off level weights. In receipt of 8 lbs today, he would (theoretically at least) appear to have every chance of overturning that form.

Binocular (8/13f) is clearly a high class horse on his day, but he has consistently given the impression that he needs to be very fit to run up to his best, and that is questionable here given the Champion Hurdle is his main target and he has only been switched to this race at the last minute. I think he could be vulnerable and actually fear C&D specialist Celestial Halo (5/2) as much, if not more. I’ll be backing Starluck to win (6/1 generally. 7.6 Betfair), and think a reverse forecast with Celestial Halo may also be worth a small interest.

15.00 Kempton (updated: 09.30)

CASA BEX:

> Ran a nice race over 6f here on his penultimate start, staying on well in the closing stages to claim fourth in what I think was a particularly strong maiden for the grade. The winner Dark Castle looks a nice prospect, Gabrial’s Bounty (2nd) has won 2 handicaps subsequently, Mister Mackenzie (3rd) has since run 2 solid races, and Cats Eyes (5th) won next time (herself beating a next-time winner). There was then a 9 length gap back to House Limit (runner-up next time).

> At Lingfield (7f) on his latest start he looked to be coming with a run that would likely have seen him go close to winning, but he was badly cut off at a crucial time and had to ease up, losing all chance. He took a while to pick up there, and it could be that he didn’t handle the track all that well. A return to the more conventional Kempton may be in his favour.

> It’s hard to know whether his improvement is down to having matured after a break, liking the AW, or benefitting from the tongue-tie/visor combination, but whichever it is he looks ready to strike soon, and 7f at Kempton looks ideal. I’m not convinced that many of his rivals have much in hand of their current marks and, if in the same form as the last twice, I think he’ll be hard to beat here. Odds of 3/1+ strike me as decent value (currently top price of 10/3).

14.30 Lingfield (updated: 09.35)

CUSTOM HOUSE isn’t the most reliable sort and has a poor strike rate (1-18), but I thought he showed enough on his latest run (in first-time cheekpieces) to be of some interest here.

Custom House’s most recent run was over this C&D last weekend, in a race where the early pace looked pretty honest, and the horses racing in 1st, 3rd and 4th at the 2f marker ultimately faded to finish 10th, 9th and 8th (respectively) of the 10 runners, with the finish dominated by those ridden with more restraint. It’s therefore quite possible that Custom House, after racing in 2nd for most of the race, did pretty well to be beaten only just over 2l in 6th. That form also has a pretty solid feel to it, with the top 3 in the market filling those positions, and Custom House now has a 5lb pull with the winner from that race – Diamond Vine (10/3).

He is well drawn in stall 2 to attack again and, if he is in the same sort of form as last time and the pace holds up better today, then he would look to have decent prospects of at least hitting the frame from a lowly mark of 58 (rated as high as 83 in the past and finished a close 3rd off 64 at Kempton in November).

Custom House is no good thing to build on that effort (generally inconsistent profile and the blinkers tried previously only seemed to ‘work’ for one run), but I think he has enough in his favour to warrant a speculative each-way interest here (14/1 Boylesports, BetVictor. 18+ Betfair).

RESULT: UNPLACED

15.35 Lingfield (updated: 10.00)

Have to dash to catch a train so just going to have to copy and paste a Tweet for my second fancy today:

RESULT: WON

14.35 Cheltenham (updated: 07.14)

There is little doubt that TIDAL BAY is a quirky horse, and he seems to have developed something of a ‘comedy’ reputation, often described as being an ‘unpredictable’ character with ‘a mind of his own’. However, whilst recognising that he has a pretty unique run-style (regularly gets behind before storming home with his customary high head-carriage), I think his reputation of being unpredictable is largely unjustified, and his quirkiness seems to have overshadowed the fact that he remains a top-class performer when he gets his conditions.

Tidal Bay was clearly effective at shorter trips/on quicker ground as a younger horse, but in recent years (as he has increasingly developed the tendency to get behind in his races) his profile/form suggests he likely needs a trip of 3m+ with a decent cut in the ground (may not want it heavy) in order to to run to a high level. Indeed, despite his reputation of being unpredictable, his career form at trips of 3m+ when racing on ‘good-soft’ or ‘soft’ ground reads: 2-1-2-2-3, achieving RPRs of 169, 164, 170, 166 and 160. It also makes intuitive sense that a horse who has become lazier/trickier with age, and who can get some way behind his rivals, might need a longer trip/softer ground to help ‘pull’ him into a race. Furthermore, Tidal Bay seems to really like Cheltenham, where the testing nature of the track and uphill finish seems to suit his strong-finishing style (his poorer efforts here seemingly down to inappropriate trips/ground).

I think it’s therefore quite easy to argue that Tidal Bay is nothing like as unpredictable as if often claimed. When getting his conditions he seems to be at least a solid 160-165 performer, and there is a fair chance champion trainer Paul Nicholls can extract some more improvement from him. He has had a breathing operation since joining his current yard (was reported to have made a noise on the gallops soon after arriving), and made a very pleasing debut for the stable (reported to be in need of the run) when running a good third from a mark of 160 over hurdles at Cheltenham on New Years Day.

Another positive is the possibility of a strong pace. Tidal Bay’s style means that he naturally struggles to come from behind off a slow/accelerating gallop, but there are plenty of potential front-runners (6 of the 9 runners look to be contenders to lead) in here, and it is hoped that between them they can set up a ‘fast-fast-slow’ style race, where Tidal Bay can utilise his strong finish to stay on past tiring rivals late on.

If I could hand-pick optimum conditions for Tidal Bay, then 3m1f110y on good-soft at Cheltenham would likely be close to the mark, so there looks to be a good chance he can show something like his best form here. Not only does Tidal Bay look to have near-perfect conditions, but I also think many of those at the top of the market look vulnerable/underpriced. Captain Chris is a classy sort but, despite managing a respectable sounding 3rd, he didn’t jump, travel or stay on in the King George. He arguably wasn’t at his best there, and better can be expected in time, but this will likely be a pretty severe stamina test and his profile suggests he will be better on good spring ground. Time For Rupert, Diamond Harry and Midnight Chase are shorter in the market than the selection, and are all capable performers on their day, but in my view it’s entirely possible that Tidal Bay can run to a mid-160s+ level here, and if he does that then his rivals face no easy task in conceding 5-6lbs to him.

Many will likely scoff at this suggestion, but I believe Tidal Bay should be challenging for favouritism today, and with a decent round of jumping I’d expect him to be hard to beat. Diamond Harry, who went well for a long way in the Betfair Chase on his return, is feared most.

RESULT: PLACED (2nd)

16.15 Cheltenham (updated: 09.48)

ART PROFESSOR makes a fair bit of appeal in the closing 2m1f handicap hurdle at Cheltenham. He won this race last year, and it may initially seem that he needs to improve a fair bit to follow up that narrow victory from a 9lb higher mark. However, that form has worked out particularly well – the 2nd, 3rd and 4th are now respectively rated 21lbs, 8lbs and 14lbs higher than the ratings they ran off that day – and he may not need to improve too much to go close again. Furthermore, he shaped well to be third on his seasonal reappearance at Kempton last month, and his yard are in much better form now (Venetia Williams’ strike-rate was just 7% in December, compared to 19% January to date). At 8/1 he looks decent value against 9/4 favourite Hinterland , who is nevertheless feared. Dare Me and First In The Queue are also respected, with the latter looking worthy of a small saver at 14/1+ too.

RESULT: PLACED (2nd)

15.30 Haydock (updated: 20th Jan)

The Sawyer:

> Has a particularly good record when racing at both this time of year and on testing ground. His form figures when racing on soft or heavy ground in the month of January read: 8-1-1-6-1-1-1-1, whereas he has just 2 wins from 45 runs when not hitting this criteria

> Has been shaping as though coming into form, posting solid staying-on efforts in his last two runs at Ascot and Cheltenham, where softer ground would have suited him better

> Trainer has struggled for winners for some time, but there have been more encouraging signs recently. From September to December 2011 Bob Bucker had just 2 winners from 54 runners, but January to date he has had 3 winners from 15 runners

> Now a 12yo and probably not quite as good as he was, but this is reflected in his rating, and his current mark of 131 looks fairly attractive. He has been rated as high as 148 in the past, and went very close to winning a good handicap at Ascot last winter off 134

> Has won at Haydock on heavy ground and stays well, so proven ability to handle these quite uniquely testing conditions has to count in his favour

> Light weight a positive in these conditions (10st 3lbs after factoring in his riders 5lb claim)

> Even if he is regressing slightly and not too far ahead of this mark, his ability to stay/jump well and handle very testing ground should be a big asset here. Many of his rivals have something to prove on these fronts

The Sawyer isn’t an improving or progressive horse, and it must be recognised that he is vulnerable to any younger rivals that happen to take to these conditions. However, there are plenty of positives here and he looks to have everything in his favour to deliver a peak performance for the season from a feasible mark, and all in all I would be disappointed if he couldn’t at least hit the frame. I would often bet win-only at these kind of odds (10/1), but in this instance The Sawyer has a particularly ‘solid’ feel and so makes a fair bit of each-way appeal.

RESULT: UNPLACED (4th)

13.00 Lingfield (updated: 09.41)

EMERALD WILDERNESS has been in fine form recently and, despite edging up the ratings as a result, could be worth sticking with again today. After two narrow defeats at Kempton (endured wide trips and made big moves both times), he won readily over this C&D last month; the winning distance of a head not doing justice to his dominance after hitting the front plenty soon enough and seeming to idle in front. That form has a strong feel to it (2nd has won off 2lbs higher since, 3rd was very well backed into 10/3 on-course, pulled well clear of 4th), and a 4lb rise looks perfectly fair.  He is drawn wide in stall 11, but he will likely be dropped in anyway, and there is a decent chance of a good pace, with a few prominent racers in opposition. Other positives include the fact that his stable is in good form (3 winners and a short-head 2nd from last 6 runners), and he remains 14lbs below his peak all-weather mark. Emerald Wilderness is quirky – displaying a slightly awkward head carriage and tending to only do the bare minimum in front – so I would suggest entering some in-running lays at shorter prices (traded as low as 2.32 and 1.12 in his recent Kempton defeats). Raucous Behaviour is rated as an interesting rival – he has been in good heart for some time, was better than the bare form after doing best of those to chase the pace last time, shapes as though 10f won’t be a problem, and has the assistance of in-form apprentice Raul Da Silva.

RESULT: WON (Betfair SP: 9.77 WIN, 3.07 PLACE)

15.40 Warwick (updated: 09.42)

I wrote the following about FAASEL on Twitter last night:

His price has now contracted, but he could still be worthy of an each-way interest at 8/1+ or to place at 2/1+. He is also quirky and not the easiest to win with, but he has plenty on his favour in what looks a moderate race, and has every chance of going close.

RESULT: UNPLACED

(updated: 30 Dec)

The wins of Last Instalment and Synchronised at Leopardstown earlier this week seemed to confirm them as leading ante-post contenders for the RSA Chase/Gold Cup respectively. However, rather than making too many quick assumptions about what each may or may not have achieved, I firstly wanted to individually time them from fence-to-fence to see if that could provide any insights into their potential credentials for the aforementioned races.

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> Last Instalment ran steadily faster than Synchronised to the 12th fence, ultimately getting there 4.73s quicker

> Synchronised then put in some faster relative sectionals, running 2.20s quicker than Last Instalment between fences 12 and 16

> From fence 16 to the finish (final 2 sectionals), the two of them clocked very similar times

I’m not going to go into huge detail about what I personally think the data tells us (I am keen to let readers draw their own conclusions), but I will say that I was surprised at just how well Last Instalment finished off his race relative to Synchronised given how each had run earlier in the race. It was a similar story with Grands Crus et al. when compared to the King George runners on Boxing Day.

Whilst not wanting to draw too many firm conclusions from just these two races, I have to say that I am particularly excited about the potential quality of the RSA Chase at Cheltenham this season. And likewise I am starting to have some doubts about the depth/quality of the Gold Cup contenders this year, and will be keeping a close eye on that market to see if any new viable contenders emerge.

Please note:

> The sectionals are hand-timed

> The timings are for Last Instalment and Synchronised individually, and not for the leaders in each race

(updated: 27 Dec)

14.00 Leopardstown

Voler La Vedette got the better of Mourad in the Hattons Grace last time, but there are a few reasons why I fancy Willie Mullins’ charge to reverse the form here. A Tweet from earlier probably summarises these reasons as well as anything:

In addition, on Voler La Vedette’s one try at 3m she was around 6l behind Mourad (in a G1 at Punchestown in May) and, for the reasons highlighted in the Tweet, I think it could be the same story again here. The current prices are 6/4 Mourad and 13/8 Volver La Vedette, but I believe the former should be a clearer favourite. Given the rest have a fair bit to find, I think there is some value in his price and he should be closer to Evens.

14.35 Leopardstown

Quito De La Roque is clearly a smart stayer and if he can stay in touch to three/two out he will be a tough horse to beat in the Lexus Chase. However, given how badly he was outpaced on his favoured testing ground last time (before staying on to beat a legless non-stayer), I have my doubts about him on this front and he could be a false favourite.

I prefer Rubi Light, who ran a cracker when third in the Ryanair last season on just his seventh run over fences, and looks like an improved performer again this term. He has dominated smart horses like Sizing Europe and Joncol already this season, and looks set to take high rank among the best chasers. He has plenty of class and gears, and I fancy he will find 3m within his reach on decent ground at what isn’t too demanding a track. He had a hard enough race just 17 days ago, but there is no real reason to think he will regress from that given he has put big back-to-back runs together in the past.

Joncol is repsected back at a more suitable trip, but he surely would have preferred softer ground, as would the dour stayer Synchronised. Noland is a smart horse who has likely been laid out for this, but it’s hard to think he’s going to be as good as he once was. In short, if Rubi Light is on his ‘A-game’ I think he will be a hard horse to beat here.

In addition, I have also backed Rubi Light ante-post for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. A win here will likely convince connections to go down the Gold Cup route, and it’s an ante-post market that appeals to me. I am a massive Kauto Star fan, but despite his resurgence I still don’t think he’s as good as he was and he could be vulnerable to younger legs in March. I also have concerns abut Long Run, who continues to make jumping errors and if anything looks to be getting slower. He has come under pressure a long way out in each of his last three starts now, and he has lost any aura of invincibility about him. Furthermore, the King George didn’t read too well on the clock relative to the Feltham and this, in addition to the aforementioned reasons, suggest it could be worth looking to oppose the top two in the market.

Of the others prominent in the ante-post betting, I have doubts about Grands Crus‘ stamina, Quito De La Roque‘s speed, and Time For Rupert‘s class. In short I think this is a race in which a new pretender could emerge, and Rubi Light looks quite a likley type at this stage. He can be backed at 20/1 ‘Non-Runner-No-Bet (NRNB)’ with Ladbrokes, and this appeals as a smart play. If he wins the Lexus he will shorten markedly for the Gold Cup and we will have a nice price. If he fails to win the Lexus then he will quite likely go down the Ryanair route, and so we would have our stakes refunded anyway.

15.35 Leicester

This is quite a competitive little race with a few interesting types, but the one who quickly struck me as overpriced was Action Impact at 14/1. In November he returned from 18 months off the track to post what I thought was a promising effort – beaten less than 10l in a warm contest at Ascot. He was niggled along in rear for much of the race, seemingly finding things happening quickly enough, but made some really good headway to press for a place in the home straight, and actually poked his head into third briefly at the last. He then seemed to find lack of peak conditioning against him as he weakened into fifth. There is a good chance he will improve markedly for that run, as well as for the softer ground here (looked flat out at Ascot and sole hurdles win came on heavy). He faces a number of in-form and progressive rivals, but it’s a plus that his Ascot race was likely much hotter than the races his opponents here have been contesting. The winner at Ascot (Featherbed Lane) won by 14l off a 9lb higher mark next time, whereas the runner-up (Decoy) was officially 7bs ‘well-in’ after winning a good handicap at Cheltenham a week before. I could name a fair few dangers, but none of them strike me as especially overpriced. In contrast I think Action Impact should be a single-figure price, and so at 14/1 he looks well worth a small interest.

There’s been a lot of discussion on Twitter about Grands Crus clocking a quicker time than Kauto Star at Kempton today, but as we know mere comparison of official times means little without closer examination of the sectionals in the respective races. I have therefore hand-timed each of the two runners from fence-to-fence.

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Please note:

> The run to the first fence has been ignored.

> The timings are for Grands Crus and Kauto Star individually, and not for the leaders in each race. Kauto Star was close to the pace for most of his race, but Grands Crus raced in rear early and so the leaders in the Feltham would have clocked appreciably quicker early sectionals.

> The sectionals are hand-timed and not totally exact, and were clocked with my family barking at me to “stop being anti-social and put that bloody stopwatch down”. But I think I ignored them well enough to time pretty accurately, and so they should give a pretty good overall idea of how Grands Crus and Kauto Star ran.

(updated: 10.27)

13.45 Wetherby

Always Right is a progressive horse and it’s not hard to see why he is popular here, but he looks plenty short enough at 3/1 racing from a mark of 148. At twice the price, I prefer the solid-looking Knockara Beau (6/1). He seems to be something of an unfashionable horse who I think is regularly underestimated by the market, but it’s easy to forget just how good some of his older form is. As a novice chaser he finished close up in hot races behind the likes of Weird Al, Diamond Harry, Long Run, Weapons Amnesty and Burton Port. And last season he finished second to Grands Crus in the Cleeve Hurdle, as well as winning a handicap hurdle under 11-12 off a mark of 148. He caught the eye at Cheltenham last time, finishing very strongly after losing his position (as he often does), and the handicapper has left him on a very feasible looking mark of 143. I think 3m1f on soft ground at a relatively level, galloping track like Wetherby are near-optimal conditions for him, and should help to offset his habit of losing his position when racing on a quicker surface and/or when encountering downhill gradients. If in the same form as last time, I think this tough and likeable sort will be hard to beat here.

14.00 Kempton

I’m building my betting in this race around my belief that Grands Crus (11/8f) isn’t a natural three-miler, and may not stay well enough to win a warm contest here. That may sound like a strange thing to say given his record in top class 3m races, but I think a closer look at his 3m performances suggest there is inconclusive proof that he ‘really’ stays. I take the view that he had 30lbs+ in hand when winning at Haydock last season, and his Cleeve/World Hurdle performances, as well as his recent chase win at Newbury, were all characterised by slow early paces and were not sufficient tests at the trip. He is a naturally speedy sort, and the closing sectionals he has clocked in some of his 3m performances don’t convince me that he’ll relish a strongly run race at the trip. He may get away with it here in a small field at a flat track, and he still has to rate as the likeliest winner, but there looks like there could be a decent pace on, and at current odds I think the percentage call is to oppose him.

I respect Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti as rivals, and the other three aren’t no-hopers either, and so rather than trying to split these (if I had to I would go for Bobs Worth), I am going to play the race by laying Grands Crus. And in order to ‘keep it cheap’, I’ll be trying to lay him at shorter prices in-running, as I can see him tanking to two-out and trading markedly shorter in-running, before perhaps tiring in the closing stages. If it visually looks as though Mr Moonshine and Teaforthree (both ridden aggressively in recent starts) are failing to set a ‘proper’ gallop then I will cancel my lays as Grands Crus will be hard to beat if it turns into a test of speed, but if they look to be going a good pace in the first half of the contest I am quietly confident that Grands Crus could prove vulnerable in the closing stages.

15.20 Kempton

From a sporting perspective I will be cheering on the legendary Kauto Star in the King George this afternoon. From a betting perspective I think Somersby is a bit overpriced. I have noted before that he seems to have a distinct lack of acceleration, and he tends to get caught out when the leaders quicken in conventionally run races. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that two of his best career efforts came in the Arkle and the Victor Chandler Chase – two races that were run at a fast tempo and were marked by the leaders finishing tired. In other words, horses weren’t quickening away and so acceleration wasn’t a big factor. In short I think Somersby needs a brutal/collapsing pace to run into, and I think there is a good chance he will get that today. Golan Way and Nacarat like to force the pace, and ‘Team Nicholls’ will be keen to put Long Run‘s jumping under maximum pressure, so I think Kauto Star may well go to the front and ensure this is run at a frenetic pace. The step up in trip also promises to suit Somersby, and it should also help to further help offset his lack of acceleration at shorter trips. If he’s given a quiet ride in the rear, I can see him creeping into the race, and things could fall apart in front of him if we get a really strong pace, and there a couple of doubtful stayers - Master Minded and Captain Chris - who he could pass late on if ridden conservatively (for all that he himself also needs to prove his stamina). He looks overpriced to win at 16/1+, but I would rather play things a big safer by backing him in the ‘without Long Run’ market at 9/1 (Ladbrokes) and the place market (top 3) at 2/1+ on Betfair.

(updated: 08.23, 08.40, 09.12)

14.10 Haydock

Yesterday evening I ‘Tweeted’ the following:

Houblon Des Obeaux ran two really big races on testing ground as a juvenile, including a win over some smart rivals at this track, and some lesser efforts since then can be forgiven on account of the ground being too quick. However, I thought he shaped really well over this C&D on ‘Good-Soft’ last time, outpaced when the tempo lifted but staying on well close home to be beaten less than 8 lengths in sixth in a decent race. He is now down to a feasible mark of 138, and there must be a fair chance he will improve markedly on his last effort on this more testing ground. I think he’s just about the one to beat here, and so odds of 12/1 made plenty of appeal. He is now top price 10/1 (Ladbrokes), but I still think that is overpriced and well worth taking.

BACK Houblon Des Obeaux E/W @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

14.45 Haydock

With the ground likely to be extremely testing at Haydock today, I want horses on my side who I know will handle conditions and are strong stayers at the trip. Bench Warrent is by no means the classiest runner in the Tommy Whittle Chase, but I do think he could out-run his current odds (16/1). As a novice chaser back in the 2009/10 season, Bench Warrent won decisively on soft ground at Market Rasen, and then posted a couple of sound efforts on heavy ground behind the classy pair of Burton Port and Blazing Bailey. Last season he was placed in two handicap chases off a mark of 129, including a race over 3m5f at Warwick. It’s therefore clear that he both relishes testing ground and stays very well. I thought he shaped quite well on his seasonal reappearance 3 weeks ago, outpaced on ground not as testing as he’d like (Good-Soft) before staying on well in the closing stages. It’s also worth noting that despite having fallen a few times in his career, he’s fundamentally a really consistent and reliable sort (form when completing reads: 132312312322335). With this consistent profile, a recent run to sharpen him up under his belt, down to a mark of 127, and back on really testing ground, I can see him hitting the frame at decent odds here. Wymott is a big danger and could outclass his rivals here, so I will take him out of the equation by backing Bench Warrent in the ‘without favourite’ market at 12/1 with Paddy Power.

EDIT: With the inspection at Haydock being delayed until 10am, Bench Warrent has been declared a non-runner. He will now take up his second preference at Ascot (15.05), where he will have to race from 8lbs out of the handicap. This is not ideal, but I do think the Ascot race looks open, with question marks over all of the main contenders, and he will have a 10lb claimer on board to bring his weight down (whether or not this is a positive remains to be seen). He has a big task from out of the weights against classy rivals, but I still think he is worth a very small and speculative play at exaggerated odds. He is a bigger price on the exchanges than with the bookmakers, and this will also allow a greater focus on the place market than an each-way play would allow. Another at a big price who could out-run his odds is The Sawyer (20/1+). He usually comes to hand in January/February, but maybe he will bring that forward a couple of weeks this year. If he does then he could go well as he is on a feasible mark, has C&D form, and will love the ground.

BACK Bench Warrent WIN (20%) & PLACE (80%) on Betfair (currently trading @ ~48.0 for the win and ~10.0 for a place)

I’m not getting seriously involved with anything from a betting perspective today, but at current prices I think a couple of horses might be worth a small interest (updated: 12.49).

14.10 Southwell

Songbird Blues hasn’t yet won a race, but looks as though she might be coming to herself, and ran much the best race of her career at Wolverhampton last time in what felt like a pretty warm race for the grade. Drawn widest of the 10 runners, she was obliged to race quite wide in rear, but travelled well and finished strongly to just fail over 6f. There is encouragement in both sides of her pedigree that she could take to this surface, and indeed her half-sister won here at Southwell. She should also appreciate the step back up to 7f, and there aren’t a huge number of in-form rivals in opposition, so she could be a bit overpriced at current odds.

BACK Songbird Blues to WIN @ 4/1+ Best Odds Guaranteed or 9/2+ on the exchanges (currently trading at 5.8 WIN on Betfair)

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POST-RACE COMMENTS: Songbird Blues travelled eye-catchingly well, and seemed to really take to the surface. But after making stylish headway and looking a real threat (traded as low as 1.50 for the win on Betfair), her run flattened out. Perhaps she didn’t quite stay the 7f, and she could be really interesting if she returns to 6f back here.

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14.20 Uttoxeter

Amore Mio is, to put it kindly, something of a ‘character’ who looks to hold a bit back for himself, but he could be a bit overpriced in the 3m handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter. I like his chances of hitting the frame at a big price today for a few reasons. Conditions will be very testing (now officially ‘Soft, Heavy in places’), and Amore Mio both likes soft ground and stays very well. He hasn’t been winning but seems to be in decent heart – earning the form-book comment of “ran/kept/stayed on” in each of his last four starts, and in these conditions he could pass plenty of horses in the closing stages. I wouldn’t say he is a likely winner, as he will probably hit a flat spot and let a couple go too far clear, but he can certainly be competitive off a mark of 105 and has conditions to suit. He can be backed at 20/1 each-way, but I will personally be concentrating most of my stake on the place market.

BACK Amore Mio to PLACE @ 7/2+ on the exchanges (currently trading at 4.7 TBP on Betfair. 27.0 WIN)

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POST-RACE COMMENTS: Amore Mio moved through the race more sweetly than is often the case, but then after breaking away with a group of four he hit his customary flat spot. However, he was plugging on again and looked set to place (traded down to 1.30 TBP on Betfair) when falling at the second last. He doesn’t look like a winner waiting to happen, but is on a fair mark and should remain competitive when the emphasis is on stamina this winter.

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14.40 Towcester (updated: 10.03)

The Falkander looks like an interesting runner in the 3m110y handicap chase at Towcester today. His opening chase mark of 112 has been awarded on the back of three hurdles runs, and there looks to be a bit of substance to those efforts. Back in 2009 he ran respectably behind Midnight Sail (rated 135 at the time) at Stratford and Peveril (went on to become a 140-rated hurdler) at Leicester. In October he returned from nearly 2 years off the track to run an eye-catching race at Chepstow. That day he moved well in rear but was given anything but a hard race, and stayed on well to grab a well-beaten third close home. The winner from that race – Rev It Up – won his next start comfortably and then finished second in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham. The second was a well regarded Paul Nicholls runner, and the fourth also won well next time. Based on these efforts, an opening mark of 112 looked perfectly reasonable.

It was too early to tell how he would have fared on his chase debut at Newbury last time, but I thought he moved and jumped well before falling in a far warmer race than this. He has plenty of size/scope about him and, provided his confidence hasn’t been adversely affected by his fall at Newbury, I would be surprised if he wasn’t capable of winning chases off this mark.

The fact that Rate Of Knots – a capable and consistent horse, but one who hasn’t won since February 2009 and keeps edging up the ratings without winning – is 15/8f here tells you that this is unlikely to be a race full of well treated horses. I think the aforementioned evidence suggests there is a fair chance The Falklander could prove to be an exception, and odds of 9/1 strike me as being generous in what looks a competitive but perfectly winnable race.

BACK The Falkander to WIN @ 9/1 (Coral. 8/1 generally with Best Odds Guaranteed firms) 

POST-RACE COMMENTS: The Falklander did everything but win – jumping well and going into a clear lead after the last, but tiring close home to get collared in the dying strides (traded as low as 1.26 for the win on Betfair). There should be more to come from him in similar contests.

13.10 Cheltenham (Updated: 11.17)

As first sight 2/1 for That’lldoboy in the 2m5f handicap chase at Cheltenham today may appear a tight enough price. However, I don’t think this is a particularly good race and I strongly believe the handicapper was far too lenient in raising him 9lb for his latest win. Rather than repeat myself all over again, I will re-post my review and fence-to-fence sectionals for his win at Newbury, which I believe show that he ran a really exceptional time for the grade that day. I think a simple replication of that run would make him very hard to beat here, and personally think he should be closer to Evens than 2/1, and so looks well worth backing at his current price.

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> Review of That’lldoboy‘s win at Newbury:

VERDICT: BACK That’lldoboy to WIN @ 2/1 (Bet365. 15/8 Generally) Result - PLACED: 2nd